ELNINO RAINS
- The onset of the Elnino rains are to predicted to begin on the second to third week of October 2023.
- According to a report by the Ministry of environment and forestry, the rains are expected over several parts of the country except over the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, Central and Southern Rift Valley where rainfall is expected to continue from September.
- Kenya is said to be expecting Elnino rains starting from October to December.
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The outlook describes that the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, the Central and parts of the South Rift Valley, the Highlands East of the Rift Valley, the Coast, North-eastern Kenya and most of the South-eastern lowlands, are likely to receive above average rainfall.
The Northwestern parts of the country, parts of the Southeastern lowlands (Kajiado) and parts of the Southern Rift Valley (parts of Narok) are likely to experience near to above-average rainfall.
The Ministry of Environment and Forestry also added that during the month of September, several parts of the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin and some parts of the Central and South Rift Valley received significant amounts of rainfall.
The Highlands East of the Rift Valley including Nairobi County, a few areas over the Northwest, Isolated areas over the Southeastern lowlands as well as the Coastal region remained generally dry with a few rainy days. The Northeastern and most of the Southeastern lowlands experienced dry weather conditions throughout the month of September.
However, government has set in motion measures to deal with the impending El Nino rains. Among the measures include tasking respective ministries to deal with whatever falls within their domains and asking county governments to do their part.
The Government warned Kenyans residing in flood and mudslide prone areas that they will be moved to safer grounds in case of the rains.
According to El Nino contingency strategic plan for 2014-2018, 1,500,000 people could be in need of direct assistance as a result of the floods. Out of these 500,000 are expected to be refugees who will be addressed by the UNHCR while 1,000,000 are people in various locations who will form the target of the strategic plan.
The plan states that the areas that are mostly affected by El Nino are North Eastern parts of the country (Mandera, Wajir,Marsabit, Garissa) the South Eastern(Kitui, Makueni, Machakos and along the Coast(Lamu,Kilifi,Kwale, Tana River and Taita Taveta).Others are Kano plains, Budalang’I and the Tana delta.
The risk of landslides is also increased in settled areas with steep slopes in central Kenya (Murang’a, Nyeri, Meru) and along the Rift valley escarpment.
With the prospect of a significant influx of rains, agricultural expects are predicting significant increase in production. Both live stock and crop yields are expected to rise, leading to an overall increase in agriculture in western and eastern regions. this increase in productivity could potential help stabilize and strengthen the local economy.
Moreover, Scientists predict that the world could reach a new average temperature record in 2023 or 2024 as a result of climate change and the return of the El Nino weather phenomenon.
Last month was the second hottest on record for the globe and it may indicate that 2023 will be the hottest on record.
If El Nino develops quickly and becomes intense, as forecasters predict, temperatures could easily surpass all other years on record. In the past, similar patterns have led to record-breaking heat waves, which could have devastating consequences for vulnerable populations.
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